友好的AI研究是有效的利金宝博娱乐他主义
Miri成立于2000年的前提1友好的AI可能是做尽可能多的好方法。
此后的一些发展包括:
- The field of “effective altruism” — trying not just to do good but to do尽可能多2- 比以往任何时候都更加宣传和更好的研究,尤其是通过金宝博娱乐给予,有效利他主义中心,philosopher彼得·辛格, 一个nd the community atLess Wrong。3
- 在他的最近博士学位论文,尼克·贝克斯特德有clarified the assumptions behind the claim that shaping the far future (e.g. via Friendly AI) is overwhelmingly important.
- 由于Miri进金宝博娱乐行的研究,人类研究所的未来(FHI), and others, our strategic situation with regard to machine superintelligence is more clearly understood, and FHI’sNick Bostrom有或者ganized much of this work in aforthcoming book。4
- Miri的Eliezer Yudkowsky拥有begunto describe in more detail which open research problems constitute “Friendly AI research,” in his view.
鉴于这些发展,我们比以往任何时候都处于更好的位置,以评估友好AI研究的价值作为有效的利他主义。金宝博娱乐
尽管如此,这还是一个困难的问题。这是足够挑战的,可以评估抗马拉里亚网或者direct cash transfers。评估塑造遥远未来(例如,通过友好的AI)尝试的成本效益甚至比这更加困难。因此,this short post sketches an argument that can be given in favor of Friendly AI research as effective altruism, to enable future discussion, 并且是不打算作为彻底的分析。
- 在this post, I talk about the value ofhumanity in general创建友好的AI,尽管Miri联合创始人Eliezer Yudkowsky通常会谈论MIRI in particular— or at least, a functional equivalent — creating Friendly AI. This is because I am not as confident as Yudkowsky that it is best for MIRI to attempt to build Friendly AI. When updating MIRI’s bylaws in early 2013, Yudkowsky and I came to a compromise on the language of MIRI’s mission statement, which now reads: “[MIRI] exists to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. Thus, the charitable purpose of [MIRI] is to: (a) perform research relevant to ensuring that smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact; (b) raise awareness of this important issue; (c) advise researchers, leaders and laypeople around the world; and (d)as necessary, implement a smarter-than-human intelligence with humane, stable goals” (emphasis added). My own hope is that it will not be necessary for MIRI (or a functional equivalent) to attempt to build Friendly AI itself. But of course I must remain open to the possibility that this will be the wisest course of action as the first creation of AI吸引更接近。也有能力的问题:一些体育ople think that a non-profit research organization has much chance of being the first to build AI. I worry, however, that the world’s elites will not find it fashionable to take this problem seriously until the creation of AI is only a few decades away, at which time it will be especially difficult to develop the mathematics of Friendly AI in time, and humanity will be forced to take a gamble on its very survival with powerful AIs we have little reason to trust.↩
- 人们可能会认为有效的利他主义是直接应用决策理论to the subject of philanthropy. Philanthropic agents of all kinds (individuals, groups, foundations, etc.) ask themselves: “How can we choose philanthropic acts (e.g. donations) which (in expectation) will do as much good as possible, given what we care about?” The consensus recommendation forallkinds of choices under uncertainty, including philanthropic choices, is to maximize expected utility (Chater&Oaksford 2012;彼得森2004;Stein 1996;Schmidt 1998:19). Different philanthropic agents value different things, but decision theory suggests that each of them can get the most of what they want if they each maximize their expected utility. Choices which maximize expected utility are in this sense “optimal,” and thus another term for effective altruism is “最佳慈善事业。”请注意,从这个意义上讲,有效的利他主义与早期的慈善方法并不是太相似的高影响力的慈善事业(制造 ”鉴于投资资本的数量,最大的差异“),strategic philanthropy,有效的慈善事业, 一个nd明智的慈善事业。Note also that effective altruism does not say that a philanthropic agent should specify complete utility and probability functions over outcomes and then compute the philanthropic act with the highest expected utility — that is impractical for bounded agents. We must keep in mind the distinction between normative, descriptive, and prescriptive models of decision-making (Baron 2007): “normative models tell us how to evaluate… decisions in terms of their departure from an ideal standard. Descriptive models specify what people in a particular culture actually do and how they deviate from the normative models. Prescriptive models are designs or inventions, whose purpose is to bring the results of actual thinking into closer conformity to the normative model.” Theprescriptivequestion — about what bounded philanthropic agents should do to maximize expected utility with their philanthropic choices — tends to be extremely complicated, and is the subject of most of the research performed by the effective altruism community.↩
- See, for example:Efficient Charity,有效的慈善机构:对他人做,政治作为慈善,Heuristics and Biases in Charity,Public Choice and the Altruist’s Burden,关于慈善和线性实用程序,Optimal Philanthropy for Human Beings,单独购买模糊和UTILON,金钱:关怀的单位,优化模糊和UTILON:利他主义芯片罐,Efficient Philanthropy: Local vs. Global Approaches,The Effectiveness of Developing World Aid,Against Cryonics & For Cost-Effective Charity,贝叶斯调整不会打败存在的风险慈善机构,如何拯救世界, 一个nd什么是最佳慈善事业?↩
- 我相信Beckstead和Bostrom为研究社区提供了一项巨大的服务,以创建一个金宝博娱乐framework, 一个共享语言,用于讨论轨迹变化,存在风险和机器超智能。在与我的同事讨论这些主题时,通常会花费第一个小时的对话只是试图理解对方在说什么 - 他们如何使用他们采用的术语和概念。贝克斯特德(Beckstead)和博斯特罗姆(Bostrom)的最新工作应使研究人员之间的更清晰,更有效的沟通,从而更高的研究生产力。金宝博娱乐尽管我不知道关于共享语言对研究生产力的影响的任何受控的实验研究,但共享语言被广泛认为对任何研究领域都有很大的好处,我将提供一些本说明的例子金宝博娱乐印刷。Fuzzi et al. (2006):“使用不一致的术语很容易导致来自大气和气候研究的不同[学科]专家之间的交流的误解和混乱,因此可能会抑制科学进步。”金宝博娱乐Hinkel (2008):“技术语言使他们的用户,例如科学纪律的成员,以有效地传达有关感兴趣的领域。”Madin等。(2007):“terminological ambiguity slows scientific progress, leads to redundant research efforts, and ultimately impedes advances towards a unified foundation for ecological science.”↩